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Nilsson in ORC prepares in the wake of Færder'n
18 de junio de 2026 · 29 min · 516 vistas
Nilsson seated outdoors, gesturing with green backdrop
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Thomas Nilsson, Norwegian representative on the ORC Management Committee since 2004, explains the controversy over weather-routing scoring at the Færder race and defends ORC's Velocity Prediction Program-based system against calls to revert to APH (All-Purpose Handicap).0:55
ORC's core principle is that different boats perform differently at different wind angles and strengths; the VPP calculates predicted boat speed across those variables, making weather-routing scoring more accurate than APH's fixed assumption of a 12-knot circular course.3:25 For Færder, the system used PredictWind's ECMWF (EC) model — the same model underlying MET and YR forecasts — to generate a constructed course and a Time Correction Factor for each boat.7:59 The problem was not a flawed model in principle but that actual wind on race day exceeded the forecast, skewing results toward boats with light-air strengths.4:02 Nilsson argues APH would be equally wrong in a race from Oslo to Færder in a light gale.5:31
He identifies the next development as replacing forecast-based grib files with real observed wind data — already collected from boats and buoys via APIs — which would make scoring reflect actual conditions rather than predictions.14:49 He expects the ORC system to accept any grib file, including real-data files, within a short time.23:27 KNS (the race organizer) and ORC are reviewing every aspect of how the routing calculation extracts time-correction factors, not just the weather model itself.22:09
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